Chapter 392 The Influence of Agricultural Economics
Since "Hua Xia Xing Huo" was changed to "Agricultural Economics" this year, there has been a significant improvement in printing decoration, layout design, and article content.

This also makes this high-end agricultural magazine popular among many bigwigs within the system and a lot of agricultural capital in society.

This is also the best way to understand changes in domestic and international agricultural policies and the development of agricultural enterprises.

Therefore, when the "Agricultural Economics", which is published once a month, is mailed to major government departments, people will quickly prepare to read it.

And these people were undoubtedly attracted by the cover at the first moment.

[Has the era of energy crops arrived? ——
Going all in, can Jiahe Group's bioenergy strategy allow it to surpass the four major grain traders? 】

Such a semi-question, combined with the photo of Jiahe's Gobi Oasis headquarters building and forests, seeds and diesel on the cover, immediately attracted a lot of people's attention.

"Interesting, really interesting."

Someone expressed his feelings, "I remember that a few issues ago, an editor of Agricultural Economics published an article: The era of energy crops has not yet arrived."

"Is this going to be a slap in the face?"

However, when they saw that the protagonist was Golden Harvest, they all kept silent.

Jiahe has placed a heavy bet on the bioenergy forest industry, which has long been known to everyone in the agricultural sector.

Although there are mixed reviews and great controversy, some experts and scholars even openly questioned it, and published academic papers, university public speeches, industry reports and other means to deny or question whether Jiahe's energy forest strategy is a waste of money and labor, and destroys land and water resources...

But these could not stop Golden Harvest's determination, and few places could refuse tens of billions of real investments.

That's really throwing money away.

As they thought about it, these people turned the pages of the book one after another.

“If Cargill is the world’s largest privately held company, then Golden Harvest is the country’s largest privately held agricultural company.

After several years of rapid expansion, while competitors were scrambling to grab land around the world, Jiahe placed its all on energy forests.

This strategic adjustment has caused a lot of controversy, so we specially invited Guo Yang, the chairman of Jiahe Group, to contribute and have a conversation with him. "

And on the next page, Guo Yang's figure appeared, with slightly dark skin and a smile on his lips.

"In fact, we have been doing well in terminal products, such as milk, food, and the recently popular white radish."

Below, the figures of 'Ji Xiaobai' and 'Yuehuo' also appeared.

It would be perfect if Ning Gaoning could be brought in.

The editor is a bit scared!

Then he introduced some of Jiahe’s developments and its dialogue with agricultural economics.

How to view Guoliang’s overseas mergers and acquisitions, how to face international competition, how to go global, etc.

Many people took a quick look and couldn't wait to find the chapter about energy forests.

They really want to see how the head of Jiahe responds to the energy forest controversy, and also want to see what the rise of energy crops is.

Then I saw a more interesting title.

【The rise of energy agriculture in the northwest and southwest
-
The Red Flag River concept: A brief feasibility discussion on diverting water from the Yarlung Zangbo River's Great Bend to the Northwest Hetao region, the Hexi Corridor, and the Tarim Basin]

Reactions from readers were mixed, but the book caught everyone's attention.

Northwest southwest?

This is the focus of Golden Harvest’s current layout.

But where did the Hongqi River water diversion project come from?
The West Route Project of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project is to divert water from the Yangtze River to the Yellow River, and it is far from reaching the Tarim Basin.

The big bend of the Yarlung Zangbo River?
Many people were whetted their appetite and started reading.

"In recent years, the price of Xanthoceras sorbifolia seeds in the north has experienced a roller coaster-like price trend, and many companies and farmers who entered the market at a high point have been trapped.

Coincidentally, after southwestern provinces, autonomous regions and oil and petrochemical companies rushed to land on the leprosy tree energy forest, many energy forest problems also arose.

Therefore, a common voice has emerged in the industry and academia: my country does not yet have a standardized energy crop variety with a complete industrial chain.

At this stage, farmers should not participate.

However, here, on behalf of Jiahe Group, I would like to announce a message to you: the era of energy crops has arrived.

Based on this judgment, Jiahe will invest hundreds of billions of yuan in the construction of energy forests in Gansu, Shaanxi, Yunnan, Guizhou, Sichuan, Guangxi and other places in the next 3 to 5 years.

As of this year, more than 400 million mu of energy forests have been planted, and thousands of farmers, cooperatives, and enterprises have joined this grand plan..."

When seeing this, some people can't help but sigh at what Jiahe efficiency is.

In just a short period of time, 400 million mu of energy forests have been planted, which is more than the north and south combined in previous years.

This is the charm of throwing money!
Even if the project is unfinished, the money invested by the company is truly put to good use.

When they once again saw Jiahe judge that the era of energy crops had arrived based on the progress of energy tree varieties, these people got used to it.

Seeds are Jiahe’s strongest spear.

But no one can predict whether the barrier of bioenergy can be broken this time. Apart from Jiahe, not many people dare to take the risk.

“The difficulty in developing energy forests is water. Currently, there are water-saving measures such as water-saving drip irrigation, water rights regulation and allocation, crop rotation and fallow, etc.

But the biggest potential is undoubtedly fallow land.”

The second subheading appeared: Global agricultural resource supply potential and challenges.

"In terms of land resources, there is still a lot of arable land in the world, with a total of more than 14 billion hectares. The area suitable for growing rice, wheat, corn and soybeans is more than 10 billion hectares, with a potential for increasing production of 8-10%.

From the perspective of yield potential, scientific and technological advances in breeding technology, cultivation technology, etc. are the main driving factors for yield increases.

In the nearly 1960 years since 50, more than 80% of the increase in the production of the three major grains came from increased yields. Therefore, the future increase in global food supply will mainly rely on the increase in yields brought about by scientific and technological progress. "

"In recent years, high oil prices have driven the rapid development of bioenergy, significantly increasing the demand for raw materials such as corn, sugar, rapeseed and soybeans, changing the long-standing situation of global food surplus and low food prices.

If the grain consumed by fuel ethanol is not taken into account, the global food supply and demand situation would not be so tense.

On the other hand, agricultural development starts with the easy and then becomes difficult, and the later the development is, the higher the cost.

At the same time, planting costs are the bottom line of food prices, and rising prices of energy such as oil will push up food prices.

Finally, the driving force of the global economy has shifted to emerging economies represented by the BRICS countries. Global resource consumption has entered a new round of rapid growth, which also shows a huge demand for agricultural products. The population of the BRICS countries alone has reached 30 billion.

How to meet the increased consumption demand of more than 30 billion people in the future will become a new challenge for global food security.

Based on the above points, I judge that the era of low global food prices will never return.

Furthermore, the growing trend of 'financialization' of food, and production cuts caused by natural disasters and unexpected factors will lead to speculation.

For example, the red fire ants and caltrops that are being encountered on the other side of the ocean...

But competitors should not be too happy yet, because the grain and oil 'price war' launched by Jiahe Grain and Oil in China will not end here, but will continue.

One is due to competition, and the other is the hope to speed up the adjustment of domestic planting structure.

The outside world can accuse Jiahe of wanting to grab both seeds and grain and oil.

However, the progress in breeding technology has indeed brought about an agricultural revolution limited to the country, and the past two years have also been a painful period for the transformation of the domestic agricultural planting structure.

There is a surplus of corn and soybeans are about to become self-sufficient.

In a few years, we may be able to look forward to a future in which domestic grain production will be in overall surplus.

Then the exit is inevitable.

Or, let the land rest and recover, store grain in the land, and store grain in technology. "

For this country, no one dares to talk lightly about food surplus.

The huge population base and limited arable land resources have made the whole world worry about whether China can feed such a large population over the past few decades.

But now, the data on production increase year after year is indeed there.

Moreover, the increase is becoming more and more exaggerated.

Now someone has completely torn off this veil. Everyone has a scale in their heart to measure that food surplus is not far away.

From food surplus, the next topic quickly evolved into: agriculture needs to recuperate.

"Even if there is no food surplus, the land in the country should have been rested long ago."

"my country's arable land is affected by factors such as drought, floods, salinity, and barrenness. Low- and medium-yield fields account for a large proportion, which has put great pressure on increasing grain yields. The contradiction between construction land and arable land remains prominent."

"The grain output of the Northeast accounts for a quarter of the country's total. However, due to long-term high-intensity development and utilization, the fertile black soil area has been overdrawn for a long time. The black soil layer has become thinner and thinner, and the texture has become harder and harder."

"The southwestern karst mountainous area, with Guizhou Province as its center, covers an area of ​​more than 50 square kilometers. It is the largest karst area in the world and a typical ecologically fragile area with the strongest karst development. At the same time, this area is also one of the areas in my country where the absolute poor population is relatively concentrated.

However, 'ecological fragility-poverty-predatory development-environmental degradation-further poverty' has trapped the region in a vicious cycle of poverty.

Currently, Jiahe has built a jatropha tree planting base in the area, but it is still a drop in the bucket.”

"Hunan is a major agricultural province with the largest rice planting area in the country. It is also the hometown of non-ferrous metals. The farmland is seriously polluted by heavy metals, especially the main agricultural products such as grains, which have serious excessive heavy metal content..."

"In the inland northwest, drought and water shortage have seriously affected agricultural production activities and are also the main constraints of Jiahe's bioenergy strategy..."

Seeing this, some people have lost hope that Jiahe Grain and Oil will cancel the price war.

The price war is not only a weapon that Jiahe Grain and Oil uses to penetrate its opponent's heart, but also a way to promote forced fallow.

There is no shortage of land in the Northwest, and of course there is no shortage of low-yield land such as sandy land and saline-alkali land.

The price is pushed to the limit. Medium and high-yield fields that produce more than 1500 kilograms of grain can be accepted, but low-yield fields that only produce a few hundred kilograms can only be forced to withdraw or join Jiahe’s energy forest plan.

What's more, domestic food prices have always been higher than those abroad.

Considering many aspects, it is impossible for Jiahe to end the price war in a short period of time, and it has not revealed how many years it will last. Some grain and oil companies are already thinking about countermeasures.

However, some officials have noticed the problem. Passive fallow can also be abandonment of land, which are two different things.

So this article means that Jiahe hopes that the state will promote large-scale fallow.

Not only will it solve the short-term water use problem for Northwest Energy Forest, but the Jiahe Dunhuang West Lake project will also benefit.

Does the upper echelon have this motivation?
The Ministry of Agriculture had already revealed signs when it inspected Jiuquan, and the country supports this matter.

'Storing grain in warehouses and storing grain with the people' is no longer suitable for the new situation.

"Store grain in technology, store grain in the ground" is a phrase from the ancient Chinese agricultural classic "Yu Gong" and is remembered by many people.

"Rotating and leaving farmland fallow is a sustainable approach to food production."

"It is beneficial to conserve soil fertility and maintain the ecology, as well as to balance the contradiction between food supply and demand and stabilize farmers' income, achieving multiple goals at one stroke."

“This will be a move that will benefit future generations.”

“Jiahe will indeed benefit from it, at least the first phase of the energy forest project can be implemented smoothly.

But once Jiahe succeeds, the water resources left in the fallow areas will certainly not be able to meet the needs of the energy forest.

At this time, we had to come up with a bold idea - the Hongqi River water diversion project."

"Under the influence of multiple factors, my country has formed a clear contrast: the southeastern and southern parts of China have abundant precipitation and a humid climate, while the northwestern part has scarce precipitation and a dry climate.

Feeling the imbalance between the terrain features and the allocation of water resources, the ancients lamented, "Hundreds of rivers flow east to the sea, when will they return west?"

In recent years, reservoir power stations such as Sanmenxia and the Three Gorges Dam have been built across the country, as well as large-scale water diversion projects such as the East and Middle Lines of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project to alleviate the demand for water and electricity in some areas.

The Hongqi River concept is also based on the imbalance of water resources, which aims to transfer water from the water-rich areas in the southwest of my country to the arid areas in the northwest.

The purpose of the following content is to explore a realistic, feasible, scientific and reasonable water diversion route in the west..."

At this time, the people holding the agricultural economics magazines were in a trance, motionless like statues.

Only his occasionally furrowed brows and fixed gaze proved that he was simply staring in fascination.

Water is taken from near the Big Bend and flows into the Nu River by gravity;

It crosses the Hengduan Mountains at the confluence of three rivers, uses the Nujiang River to enter the Lancang River through a tunnel, and then uses the Lancang River to enter the Jinsha River through a tunnel;
Bypassing the Shaluli Mountains and reaching the Yalong River through a combination of tunnels, open channels and reservoirs...

The entire route is more than 6000 kilometers long, and the total annual water diversion volume is expected to reach 600 billion cubic meters.

In addition to the Hongqi River, the manuscript also mentions the Pinglu Canal in Guangxi Province. Once connected, the connection between the entire southwest and northwest will be closer.

In addition, there are pictures and some information.

The whole idea is quite long, but it is a pipe dream to try to explain a huge water conservancy project.

However, a few key points are explained.

First of all, there is economic support. The national economy is developing rapidly. If the energy forests in the northwest and southwest can really rise, it is entirely possible to develop and make profits at the same time.

Planting trees can also extend the timeline, which is the best economic support.

It is even possible that the cost has been recovered before the project is completed. Secondly, technical conditions. After the construction of super projects such as the South-to-North Water Diversion Project, the Three Gorges Project, and the Qinghai-Tibet Railway, some experience has been accumulated, but it still requires a long period of investigation, demonstration, and research.

Then there is ecological protection...

Each point was explained one by one. After reading all the discussions, some people felt excited, while others felt terrified and furious.

The scale of the Hongqi River project is unprecedented.

Moreover, it is an idea proposed by an enterprise: bioenergy - crop rotation and fallow - Hongqi River Project - bioenergy. This is a big chess game.

The biggest highlight of this issue of the journal is this article, and the other articles compiled by Agricultural Economics also revolve around energy crops.

Therefore, the idea of ​​bioenergy forest and Hongqi River project quickly swept the entire agricultural system.

This is bound to be a concept that has mixed reviews.

……

Jiuquan.

Guo Yang has been staying in Jiuquan since he learned that the new issue of "Agricultural Economics" was released.

These days, he goes to bed early and gets up early every day.

After exercising in the morning, I arrived at the headquarters building on time, turned on the computer, drank tea, looked at the scenery of the Gobi oasis, and then started my morning work.

Wait until the afternoon, then go around the company's various departments, show your face, and chat with the employees.

Another harvest season is approaching, and all work is proceeding in an orderly manner. He does not interfere too much in grassroots management.

Instead, we devoted part of our energy to the formulation and adjustment of the company's personnel organizational structure, corporate culture, rules and regulations, etc.

Then, at 5:30 every day, they would take turns to call the work teams from NIO Field and Weibo for video conferences to adjust and improve various details.

That morning, after sorting out documents and other information, Guo Yang decided to go to the countryside for a walk.

However, just as the SUV drove out of the building and before entering the main road, a series of shrill horn sounds were heard.

Luo Xiu took a look and said, "Boss, it looks like the car of Leader Qin Lijun."

Guo Yang also saw a black Passat that was close to a government car. "Stop for a moment."

The Passat quickly stopped side by side, and Qin Lijun leaned out of the car window, "Mr. Guo, why is your phone turned off?"

Guo Yang said: "There are too many calls."

"..." Qin Lijun: "I read the article on agricultural economics. It's very bold."

Guo Yang raised his eyebrows, "Is that what you came here to talk about?"

"The leader asked me to tell you that the province will fully support Jiahe's bioenergy strategy." Qin Lijun smiled and said, "At least the province has already planned to implement fallow throughout the Hexi Corridor."

Guo Yang smiled and said, "The energy forest will definitely succeed. Not only will it succeed, but the profits it can create will also exceed everyone's imagination."

"Wherever you go to the countryside, I'll go with you." When Qin Lijun said this, he had already got out of the car.

Guo Yang smiled and said, "Just wander around and go wherever you want. We have planned the route in advance, and the people below will definitely make it look beautiful."

"I feel like you're mocking me." Qin Lijun got in the car. "It's been a while since I went to the countryside with you."

"Will the leaders above ask me again who is in the South?"

“Hahaha, not really, not really.” Qin Lijun said, “As soon as this article came out, Jiahe and the Hexi Corridor were already tied together.”

"Just let the bullets fly for a while."

Guo Yang thought of Weibo and Huinong.com. Once they have fermented within the system, perhaps they can also attract some interested people.

...

China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research.

After reading the concept of Hongqi River, Wang Hao, director of the Institute of Water Resources, professor-level senior engineer, and academician of the Chinese Academy of Engineering, couldn't help but clapped his hands on the table.

"I swear that I will rise to the ninety thousand heavens and look west to the eight thousand willows of Zuo Gong!" Wang Hao said with emotion: "What a bold idea!"

Zhao Yong, deputy director of the Institute of Water Resources, said: "It's too bold."

Wang Hao asked: "Do you think it's a dead end?"

"Hmm?" Zhao Yong thought about it in surprise. The director's words were very meaningful. "This is just a concept. There is no scientific evidence."

"Isn't that what we do?" Wang Hao smiled and said, "How about organizing a team to investigate a few times, and then we can make a preliminary judgment."

Zhao Yong said: "The East and Middle Route projects of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project have not been completed yet. It is inappropriate to push this now."

"It's not us who are pushing it, it's Jiahe who is pushing it." Wang Hao teased, "We are just doing it as we please, and it's not certain when it will be implemented."

Zhao Yong nodded slowly. He began to understand Wang Hao's intention.

"I'm interested in this project. Let me contact the experts to make a case study." Wang Hao added, "See if we can get some funding from Jiahe."

Zhao Yong said: "I'll go ask about this."

...

Institute of Geology and Geophysics, Huaxia Academy of Geological Sciences.

Zhao Xitao, a man with white hair, came to the institute for a walk as usual, but accidentally saw a new young man reading a book intently.

Out of curiosity, he also stood behind and looked at it. He vaguely saw the map of China, but there was a strange curve on it, like a non-existent river.

As he was old, he thought his eyesight was blurry, so he had to move closer to see, and accidentally startled the young man who was reading.

The young man shuddered as if he had seen a ghost.

After a while, Wei Lejun said, "Mr. Zhao, you almost scared me to death."

Zhao Xitao asked: "What are you looking at so intently?"

"There's an article published in Agricultural Economics, and a friend in the agricultural field asked me to take a look at it."

Wei Lejun's eyes suddenly lit up.

Although Mr. Zhao is only a researcher after retirement, he has visited the Yarlung Zangbo Grand Canyon many times, the Three Parallel Rivers area dozens of times, and participated in the investigation of the middle route of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project...

Few people have more say than Mr. Zhao on the Red Flag River concept proposed in the article.

Thinking of this, Wei Lejun said, "Mr. Zhao, please sit down. This article proposes a water diversion concept. Please take a look."

Zhao Xitao frowned. That map was about water diversion?
With doubts, Zhao Xitao sat down and read carefully, while Wei Lejun went to help make a cup of tea.

But until the tea turned cold, Zhao Xitao did not move, and his expression was difficult to understand.

After a long while, Wei Lejun asked, "Mr. Zhao, do you think this is feasible?"

"feasibility?"

Zhao Xitao just sneered, which made Wei Lejun feel pressured.

“It’s ridiculous!”

In an instant, Zhao Xitao's face turned red, as if he was changing his face in Sichuan Opera. "They think the project is not big enough or there are not enough of them?"

"The pros and cons of the Sanmenxia, ​​Three Gorges, and South-to-North Water Diversion projects are beyond the reach of today's impetuous and utilitarian mentality.

This so-called Red Flag River is unprecedented in scale, involving water resource allocation, the ecological environment of vast areas along different river basins, and the production and life of hundreds of millions of people.

If humans do not follow the laws of nature, it will only bring greater disasters.”

Wei Lejun had already stood there in a daze.

I didn't dare to move or speak. Mr. Zhao had a strange temper and had offended many people in the academic community.

And he just remembered that someone seemed to have said that Mr. Zhao was a staunch opponent of the Three Gorges Project.

So I didn't achieve any fame until I retired.

After a while of getting angry, Zhao Xitao looked at Wei Lejun and said, "Do you also think this is a project that will benefit China?"

Wei Lejun shook his head without hesitation. Saving his life was the most important thing at this time.

"This boy is teachable." Zhao Xitao nodded with satisfaction.

Wei Lejun blinked. He believed it so easily!

Zhao Xitao looked at the cover of Agricultural Economics again. He didn't understand agriculture, but apart from the Hongqi River and the bioenergy that he was skeptical about, he strongly agreed with fallow land.

“Rest on the ground but not in the air, one year is equivalent to two years’ work”, this is the wisdom left by our ancestors for thousands of years.

It’s just that modern people are becoming more and more eager for quick success and instant benefits.

Thinking of this, Zhao Xitao realized that the influence of agricultural economics should have spread to all major institutions long ago.

This is great news for some "engineering people".

After sitting on the bench and thinking for a while, Zhao Xitao looked at Wei Lejun and said, "Xiao Wei, are you interested in publishing a few papers?"

"Of course!"

"You have ambition." Zhao Xitao stood up, "Then I, with my old bones, will be the villain again!"

Wei Lejun felt like he got on the boat for some unknown reason.

"Looking at the map, the headwaters and upper reaches of the Hongqi River are typical high mountains and deep valleys, and are the largest and deepest areas on Earth...

But there are still some places that need to be investigated on the spot, Xiao Wei, thank you for your hard work."

……

“For modern countries, whether or not they have a secure oil supply is a matter of vital importance to the country.

It is expected that next year, my country will surpass the United States to become the world's largest manufacturing country, and its oil consumption will reach 4.4 million tons.

7% of it will rely on imports.”

As one of the promoters of that manuscript, although Liu Deshu was just doing it out of convenience, he was still summoned by the leader.

The leader also fell into thought.

China is a super buyer of oil, but it is not easy to maintain the crude oil supply to the super buyer.

Import and shipping are a hurdle that cannot be circumvented...

At the same time, increasing revenue and reducing expenditure is also necessary.

Among them, the diversity of energy structure has the highest potential to be tapped, including wind energy, solar energy, hydropower, nuclear energy...

However, the proportion of oil in power generation in our country is not high, and not much oil is used in power generation, but it is used in huge amounts in transportation and industrial sectors.

In addition to electric vehicles, for which there are already some policy outlines, biodiesel is also a possible option.

After thinking for a while, the leader said, "It's only three years. Just wait for him. This kid is really capable of making trouble."

Liu Deshu said: "But maybe it will work this time."

"If it works, then we can walk on more legs, and walk more steadily and better."

"What about the Red Flag River?"

The leader smiled and said, "Let the industry argue to its heart's content first. If it doesn't continue for a few years or ten years, I don't think this matter will be resolved."

...

Guangxi Province.

"Jiahe probably has ideas about the Pinglu Canal as well!"

"Ah, he just mentioned it!"

"Why would he bring this up if he didn't have any ideas? Otherwise, why would Jiahe go to Baise to plant leprosy trees? Wouldn't it be better to just develop in the southwest?"

"Is that right?"

"It has to be!"

Jin Province.

Li Yongcai, who had suffered a lot in establishing and planting Xanthoceras sorbifolia orchards, became more determined after reading an article in agricultural economics at the Agricultural Bureau.

At the same time, I also made a decision to record this hardship on the Huinong website.

(End of this chapter)