Chapter 366: Migrant workers return home; cotton futures (ask for monthly tickets!!)

“Not only are there more people in the city, but the countryside is also bustling now.”

"You should be thankful that you have Jiahe."

"Yes, fortunately there is Jiahe." Qin Lijun nodded in agreement. "In the past two months, some provinces have been under great pressure for public security. Theft, robbery, fraud, family disputes, and all kinds of conflicts have come."

"As migrant workers, it's fine for them to stay at home for a few days, but if they stay idle for too long, there will definitely be problems."

In just a few months, the impact of the financial crisis has been transmitted to the real economy.

The decrease in export orders has led to a large number of migrant workers in the southeastern coastal areas closing down their businesses, becoming unemployed and returning home.

Before the end of the year, the National Bureau of Statistics publicly stated that the number of migrant workers returning to their hometowns had exceeded 7000 million, a rare economic phenomenon in the past decade or so.

In ancient times, people who were exiled and employed by others were called "Yan Hu", which means that they came and went like geese without a fixed schedule.

In English, migrant workers are called “migrant workers”, which means leaving their homes and migrating like migratory birds.

This group is a vulnerable group in society. The financial crisis and unemployment wave have made them face unprecedented difficulties and challenges.

The relevant departments have already issued a notice requiring all localities to make preparations for receiving and appeasing the people.

The early return of migrant workers to their hometowns will undoubtedly add new pressure to the already severe local employment situation.

The same is true for Long Province, one of the major provinces exporting labor abroad.

But Qin Lijun still had the mind to come to Jiahe to have tea with Guo Yang, so naturally the problem in Jiuquan had been solved.

The root of the problem lies with Jiahe.

From the beginning of the year to the end of the year, projects such as river channel cleaning and construction, ecological greening, and water-saving drip irrigation in the Shule River Basin have never stopped, and each project requires sufficient labor.

Manpower is also needed for the management and maintenance of saline-alkali land in the irrigation area in the middle reaches of the Taolai River and the irrigation areas along the mountains and rivers.

At the end of the year, the energy forest project was launched.

There is a wave of unemployment in the coastal areas, and there is a labor shortage in Jiuquan. Now that people are returning, it is just the right time.

In other cities and counties in the province, due to the sudden increase in manpower, there is also an urgent desire to speed up the implementation of energy forests.

“You can still work in winter!”

"The contracts for the township bases will be signed immediately, and the relevant departments will arrest anyone who obstructs or causes trouble."

"The provincial and local meteorological departments analyze and collect meteorological information at any time to avoid unnecessary losses caused by meteorological factors."

"We must cooperate with the owner to win this winter construction battle!"

Jiahe also hoped to retain this group of manpower, and it hit it off with the government, construction unit, and supervision unit, and the project progress accelerated sharply in December.

Leveling the land, clearing the original inefficient crops, weeds and trees, irrigation ditches, river management, compost fermentation, laying drip irrigation pipes...

In the Hexi Corridor and Longzhong areas, rural areas are still busy. Under the leadership of the owner Jiahe Group, various construction units, villagers' organizations and cooperatives are full of fighting spirit and fighting hard in the wind and snow, setting off a climax of winter construction.

Basically all the work in Jiuquan has been arranged, but Guo Yang couldn't bear to see Qin Lijun being so leisurely.

As public servants, we must have the awareness of serving the people.

"Leader, simply letting farmers work is not a long-term solution." Guo Yang said: "The project will be completed one day."

Qin Lijun drank the red hemp tea happily, "The economic situation should have improved by then, right?"

“Local development also requires people.”

"What do you want to do?"

"A skill is the capital for migrant workers to find employment." Guo Yang said with a smile: "The city can organize more training."

“For example, training in driving and repairing agricultural machinery, cultivating and processing vegetables, and various breeding programs.”

"At the same time, the city will provide some preferential policies on land, taxation and loans to mobilize the enthusiasm of migrant workers to return home and start businesses."

Qin Lijun asked, "You want someone to plant Xanthoceras sorbifolia, right?"

"My boss still understands me." Guo Yang smiled, "But this is also of great benefit to the city."

"I think you think I'm disturbing your work."

Guo Yang smiled but said nothing.

Qin Lijun left cursing, but Guo Yang did not forget to remind him.

"You've read The Story of How to Get Rich, right? You need to bring out some successful cases to attract people."

"Business about your business."

Guo Yang does have a lot of things to do. Recently, the pace of energy forest and water-saving fallow projects has accelerated significantly, not only in the northwest but also in the south.

The third and fourth 100,000 acres in Guangxi Province have entered the transfer process, and funds have been continuously transferred to the special account.

There has also been new progress in Chuxiong and Panzhihua in Yunnan Province.

The King of Quan also acquired 2 acres of forest land in Panxi as a base for neem trees.

As for the leprosy tree, because of Chuxiong's active invitation and there was no mess left in the local area, Jiahe Biochemical has already moved to Chuxiong.

The local area also has the task of ecological afforestation, and in the past, economic forests such as walnuts and chestnuts were planted.

But perhaps because they had not gone through too many investment routines, the local villagers easily accepted the leprosy tree.

Afforestation in the Chuxiong river valley and mountainous area is progressing exceptionally smoothly, and the feedback from Jiahe Biochemistry is also very interesting.

"Local farmers think that since there are big bosses collecting the crops and they can get paid, they are very motivated to plant trees."

“If farmers in other places were as easy to communicate with as those in Chuxiong, Jiahe’s energy forest project would be much faster.”

“The people are simple and honest!”

The staff of the All King interrupted at this time, "How can it be simple and honest?"

"Farmers in Honghe and Yuxi who grow pyrethrum have not received payment for several years and owe tens of millions of yuan."

"The person in charge was only beaten up, but the factory can still produce normally and all the equipment is intact."

"After Quanwang took over, farmers happily planted pyrethrum again. They made a fortune last year. This year, farmers in Luxi are enthusiastic about planting, and both the yield and area have reached new highs."

In the future, Yunnan Province will be a holy land for bosses from all over the country to invest in agricultural planting.

However, it has not been developed yet. The first person to develop the fruit planting potential in Yunnan Province was a boss in Wenling, Zhejiang Province.

"Chasing the sun to grow watermelons" is used to describe the enterprising spirit of farmers in Zhejiang Province who leave their hometowns and work tirelessly.

When the watermelon market was not doing well, the boss in Zhejiang Province developed grapes and achieved amazing results with Summer Black and Sunshine Rose.

The two pyrethrum processing companies acquired by Quanwang, Honghe Senju and Yuxi Yuliangji, have turned losses into profits this year.

The benefits are good, the quality has also improved, and Quanwang has also increased the purchase price of dried pyrethrum flowers.

As early as when he took over, Quanwang promised to raise the price every time the active ingredient of pyrethrum increased by 10 percentage points.

The original purchase price per kilogram of grade one, two and three dried flowers was 11 yuan, 9 yuan and 7 yuan respectively.

Now it has become 15 yuan, 13 yuan, and 11 yuan.

The first price increase brought considerable profits to farmers in Luxi and Yuxi.

Investing in agriculture in Yunnan Province, except for the rising land rent in the future, the problems encountered at the grassroots level are easy to solve.

However, there are also hidden concerns in the process of introducing the Jiahe Jatropha project in Chuxiong.

The Jiahe team described one of the leaders as follows: His style of attracting investment is very fanatical. Even in meetings, he still smokes a water pipe.

Guo Yang carefully read the proposal on expanding the leprosy tree planting area in Chuxiong in his office.

The basic conditions for afforestation are relatively poor.

Afforestation in dry and hot river valleys was once regarded as a "forbidden zone" by forestry circles at home and abroad.

'We plant trees year after year but no trees are seen, and we afforest year after year but no forests are seen.'

"You can see the Jinsha River from the hilltop, but you can't reach it or use it. The river just flows away."

"There is a lack of water and soil, the weather is hot and dry, and the mountains are high and the slopes are steep."

This is the current situation of afforestation in dry and hot river valleys such as the Jinsha River, but the leprosy tree is more suitable for these areas.

What’s more, it is a variety from a seed store.

Technical problems can definitely be solved as long as they are explored. Farmers in the part of forest land currently being tested are very enthusiastic.

The people here are so stubborn. They plant trees every year, and they die every year, but they still plant because there will always be trees that survive.

The only concern comes from the official level.

Guo Yang thought this was not a big deal, and after thinking for a while, he signed and approved it, with the first phase covering 100 million acres.

This area is just a drop in the bucket for the entire Chuxiong.

Chuxiong has a forestry land area of ​​3100 million mu, but in fact many river valleys are still bare.

These 100 million acres are equivalent to a demonstration. When the benefits are good in the future, they will drive more planting areas.

However, this is still far from Guo Yang's goal.

As there is no relevant information available at present, Guo Yang can only speculate on the route of water diversion from the Hongqi River.

The starting point of water diversion is the big bend of the Yarlung Zangbo River, which is undoubtedly near MT County.

Big Bend - Nujiang River - Lancang River - Jinsha River. As long as the water can be diverted to the Jinsha River, the remaining sections can be completely handled with the future domestic infrastructure capabilities.

The best location for the water diversion hub on the Jinsha River should be Tiger Leaping Gorge, located in DQ Prefecture, with its capital Shangri-La.

It is not too far from Chuxiong, but not too close either, so it is possible to grow leprosy trees.

But several other water diversion hubs are at higher altitudes and the thermal conditions are not as good.

The only option is to find another way, and cultivate cold-resistant leprosy tree species. Besides, the biggest controversy around such a large project is ecological protection.

For example, the Tiger Leaping Gorge Power Station, although approved by the plan, has been in a state of waiting to be built for a long time.

The biggest obstacle is opposition from environmentalists and national environmental protection authorities.

There is not much Jiahe can do. First, develop bioenergy to make the development of Hongqi River valuable. Second, protect the ecology.

As for the construction, we still have to rely on infrastructure maniacs, or are there any plants that can help dig tunnels?

After daydreaming for a while in the office, Guo Yang wrote down some potential varieties for cultivation before going home from get off work.

It’s cold in winter and people can’t exercise outdoors, so Guo Yang had someone build a gym in the villa.

Apart from being a bit boring, there is nothing wrong with it.

I played games for a while in the evening. Since I was willing to spend money, my account balance had already improved. However, I became less and less interested in playing.

The next morning, when I went to the company for breakfast, I happened to see Guan Cheng. Remembering the nearest cotton market, I sat over there.

"How's the cotton picker?"

Guan Cheng moved the plate aside and said with a smile, "A total of 120 units have been delivered this year."

Machine-picked cotton in Xinjiang Province has just started, and this figure is already close to one-third of the market in Xinjiang Province, but this is not what Guo Yang is concerned about.

"I know that, but what about the performance during production?"

"There is still a gap between us and John Deere, but we are better than Guizhou Aviation. Guizhou Aviation's delivery volume is not as good as ours, and Deere is too expensive. Fengkai has strong market competitiveness."

"This year, the area of ​​machine-picked cotton should be close to 100 million mu, with each machine picking more than 8000 mu on average."

Guo Yang praised: "The failure rate should not be high."

"Yes, each machine is estimated to produce more than 400 million kilograms." Guan Cheng said: "This data should be the highest in Xinjiang. Other cotton fields do not have such a high yield."

Machine-picked cotton is a complex system: standardized planting management - mechanized picking and transportation - technological processing and production.

Among them, the machine-picked cotton varieties are involved. Fengkai developed and produced 30 machines last year, and cooperated with the Corps to harvest more than 10 mu of cotton fields, completing the finalization of the cotton picker.

Quantitative production will be achieved this year.

This speed is roughly the same as that of Guizhou Airlines, but Guizhou Airlines only delivered 100 units in batches this year.

In any case, the situation in which the domestic cotton picker market was dominated by foreign products has been broken, ending the history of complete reliance on imports.

Guo Yang knew that Deer Tiantuo was furious, but just like the various difficulties faced by Chinese vegetables exported to island countries, if you want to make money from others, you must have your own advantages.

Deere's current advantage is only its more mature technology.

However, the price is too high. Fengkai's cotton picker is priced at 88 yuan per unit, while Deere's is at least 150 million yuan.

The huge price gap is enough to offset the technological immaturity.

Moreover, Fengkai also has unique advantages, such as the high-yield Tianmian 20 seeds - suitable for machine-picking planting mode - and a tailor-made cotton picker.

The production of Tianmian in the past two years is proof of this.

Guihang also has an interest linkage mechanism. Its shareholders include a division of the Corps and the Shihezi government, so it was born with sales.

Only foreign companies such as Deere and Case took all the profits away from him.

After chatting with Guan Cheng for a while during the meal, Guo Yang also became concerned about this year's cotton after returning to the office.

Apart from the exciting domestic cotton pickers, this year's cotton market is not wonderful.

Due to the impact of the financial crisis, international cotton consumption has decreased. At the same time, the decline in oil prices has also increased the substitutability of chemical fiber products, and the demand for cotton is very weak.

In addition, there is great pressure on imports.

Guo Yang asked the secretariat to compile a report on the recent cotton textile market situation.

There are overwhelming complaints from cotton spinning enterprises.

"The cotton quality in our country is poor and has many problems. It cannot fully meet the domestic production needs, which adds a heavy burden to enterprises. It is very unfair to the textile industry!"

"The sliding scale tax is just cutting the flesh of cotton spinning enterprises!"

"The cotton price in Jiangsu Province has fallen sharply - the purchase price of seed cotton is less than 2.5 yuan per catty!"

“Cotton farmers are unwilling to sell and it is difficult to sell cotton, and cotton companies are unwilling and dare not to buy it.”

"In 2008, the price of agricultural inputs rose sharply, and the actual income of cotton farmers was not even enough to cover the costs."

Cotton farmers are sad, cotton spinning companies are both worried and extremely angry, and the sliding tariff has seriously affected cotton imports.

The sliding scale tax is a tariff system specially designed for cotton imports, with the tax rate fluctuating between 5% and 40%.

High-quality cotton has a high price and a low tax; low-quality cotton has a low price and a high tax.

Guo Yang paid special attention to the current price of imported cotton. The landed price with a 1% tariff is 10065 yuan/ton, which is 1570 yuan lower than the domestic cotton price.

But with the sliding tariff, the import cost for cotton spinning enterprises will be 300 yuan higher.

This means that cotton spinning companies will have to pay an additional 1870 yuan in taxes when buying imported cotton.

And then we have to participate in international competition...

It can be said that the sliding scale tax was resisted by cotton spinning enterprises from the moment it was introduced.

But it is useless. For the safety of cotton production, a sliding tax is necessary, and in order to keep cotton spinning companies competitive, the tax rate is also being adjusted.

But in this year's environment, no matter how much adjustments are made, cotton farmers and the textile industry will not have an easy time.

Perhaps the only good news is the reduction in cotton production in North America, otherwise the international cotton price might be 1000 yuan lower.

Although cotton prices have been falling, the basic pattern of domestic cotton production falling short of demand remains unchanged.

Although North America's cotton production has decreased, India's cotton production remains strong.

But seeing the trend of Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange cotton futures prices falling and not turning back, Guo Yang couldn't help but frown.

"There are too many short orders!"

Jiang Wen, a secretary who is in his thirties and is stationed beside Guo Yang at Jiahe Grain and Oil, said: "It is a bit unusual. According to the current situation, there is still room for decline!"

Guo Yang asked: "Is the national reserve buying cotton?"

"We started to stockpile cotton at the beginning of the month." Jiang Wen said, "We are also buying cotton."

"How much did you charge?"

"More than 200,000 tons."

"Not much."

Jiang Wen thought that 100,000 tons was not a small amount, and since it was all cotton from Xinjiang Province, the price was naturally more expensive.

"The purchasing department has spent more than 1 billion yuan to buy cotton from farmers, but the decline cannot be stopped."

Guo Yang looked at the price again. The futures price was 2.5 yuan, and the spot price in Jiangsu Province, Henan Province and other places might be even lower.

It has already fallen below the cost price.

This is not normal.

"Who is the main force behind the short selling?" Guo Yang stared at Jiang Wen, "Don't tell me I don't know."

Before the sliding scale tax was introduced, domestic cotton futures prices often soared and plummeted, with the main force mostly coming from Zhejiang businessmen. Guo Yang was also the same this time, but he guessed wrong.

"The main force is several foreign investors." Jiang Wen said: "The most short orders come from 0153, which is the seat of Louis Dreyfus."

"Louis Dreyfus has also been the main buyer of domestic cotton in the past two years. They have low-interest loans provided by foreign banks. This year, they have purchased at least hundreds of thousands of tons of cotton in Xinjiang, Hubei, Jiangsu, Henan and other places."

“All of them are cotton that can be delivered to the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange.”

Guo Yang raised his eyebrows. It was an old trick: short selling futures at a high price and buying spot at a low price.

“Can’t foreign capital only buy lint cotton and not seed cotton?”

"Foreign capital provides funds, and the companies active in the acquisition market are Wenzhou merchants." Jiang Wen said quickly:
"It is mainly due to the impact of international prices. The purchasing department believes that there is still room for price decline."

It is declining. It is estimated that not many people will grow cotton next year. Whether it is seed sales or cotton spinning processing, a stable market is needed.

Only speculators like a chaotic market. After thinking for a moment, Guo Yang made a decision.

"We opened long orders, and we took the short orders from foreign investors."

"what?"

"How much courage do you think foreign investors have to continue to open short orders?" Guo Yang sneered, "Force them to make physical delivery."

"Can't Jiahe consume hundreds of thousands of tons of cotton?"

Billions of funds and futures investment are beyond the capabilities of ordinary companies.

Jiahe has the financial capabilities, but the risks are also not small. If the fundamentals continue to deteriorate and prices continue to fall, it will face large losses.

Guo Yang doesn't have this psychological burden.

Everything has its value. Once it falls below the cost price, its value will return to normal sooner or later.

Moreover, TMD obviously has problems now. Cotton in Jiangsu, Shandong, Henan, Hubei and other places is generally planted on saline-alkali land because rice and corn cannot be grown on it.

But we can grow soybeans, and alfalfa which can improve saline-alkali land!

The national cotton planting area has dropped significantly this year, which is enough to offset the increase in production in Xinjiang Province.

These people are just scared out of their wits!

Jiahe insists on forcing foreign capital to liquidate.

I will make money if you close your position. If you want to deliver the physical goods, I might even give you some labor fees. Thank you for your help in the purchase.

Over the next two days,
Jiahe Grain and Oil borrowed a sum of money from its headquarters for this cotton operation.

The cotton trading volume of Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange increased rapidly, and the futures price rose immediately, but it stagnated at 2.8 yuan per catty.

Foreign short-selling forces represented by Louis Dreyfus have begun to invest more funds, and Jiahe is not in a hurry. Keeping the price stable at a certain level is a victory.

2.8 yuan per catty is already higher than the average production cost of 2.7 yuan for cotton farmers.

In fact, in this year of general losses, there are still cotton farmers who can make stable profits.

As long as the output is high and the quality is good, the cost will naturally be lower.

This is the case with Zou Qing of the Corps.

Nowadays, he has become accustomed to rotating cotton with alfalfa or soybeans, which has excellent benefits.

This year, he once again had a good harvest.

While most cotton farmers in other parts of Xinjiang were losing money, he was still able to make a profit, which made him extremely proud.

"Do you know what technology is?"

"This is called technology, this is strength."

People who know the inside story will say disdainfully: "Isn't it just that the seeds were chosen well?"

Unfortunately, Tianmian 20 is only suitable for the northwest region, and the area of ​​the whole Xinjiang this year is only 2500 million mu.

Even if the national area is greatly reduced, there are still 8000 million mu.

The increase in production brought by Tianmian is not enough to fill this gap, and Monsanto and Genesis' genetically modified insect-resistant cotton still dominates.

Compared with the two, the advantage of Tianmian 20 is its high yield and disease resistance, but it is not as good as genetically modified ones in dealing with cotton bollworms.

Therefore, Tianmian is not without rivals in promotion.

Moreover, Xinjiang Province is too large and sparsely populated, and there are often unethical seed companies that rent other people's high-yield fields to hold on-site meetings.

Some cotton farmers are also willing to cooperate, which not only allows them to make more money but also reduces their competitors.

This resulted in an unusually slow promotion of Tianmian.

Sometimes the seeds are delivered to cotton farmers, but they insist on buying counterfeit products.

...

Wilmar and ADM are planning big moves, Louis Dreyfus has suddenly emerged, and there are rumors that Cargill is also planning to acquire Provimi.

Guo Yang was unable to enjoy the New Year's Day holiday.

Instead, he discussed with the Jiahe Grain and Oil team how Jiahe should respond next.

"ADM already holds shares in Wilmar. We can't stop them from merging or deepening their cooperation," Gao De said thoughtfully. "We can only start from the outside."

“Domestic public opinion pressure can be utilized.”

This is the old trick, and if two major international grain traders merge, it will look really huge.

"But it's not enough."

Guo Yang said: "We can start with the government. The pressure of soybean procurement is so great, it is normal to give some subsidies to the procurement companies, and this subsidy is only for domestic capital."

Everyone's eyes brightened.

"This is a good idea. It supports national soybean processing enterprises!"

"Doesn't he want mergers? Then we can encourage mergers and reorganizations between domestic companies, and foreign companies must strictly follow regulations when acquiring and acquiring companies in China."

"Don't think too far." Guo Yang smiled and said, "Are there any other ways?"

There was a brief silence.
"You can go to Southeast Asia to acquire or develop oil palm plantations," said Chen Yanqiu.

Southeast Asia is definitely better than Congo, and Jiahe also has palm tree varieties.

The key point is that this is stealing the house!
(End of this chapter)