Chapter 324: The Picture of Harvest and the Trouble on the Other Side

Duncan Malone was devastated by the tragic death of Wally Paulson.

Although the main reason was that Paulson was too crazy, not only did he not hedge honestly, but he also frantically increased leverage on long positions, and eventually his positions were liquidated!

This time, AIG not only suffered heavy losses in futures trading, but also the large amount of corn it held fell in price, so it would suffer huge losses if it sold it!
After being depressed for several days, Duncan Malone finally cheered up after being comforted by Barnes, who also suffered heavy losses.

Review carefully.

Immediately, something strange was discovered.

"Duja Cone's reaction is wrong!" Duncan Malone was sure, "It has been wrong since the day soybean futures plummeted."

Barnes also said: "Callum is not normal either. He has not asked about the import of Alfalfa No. 1 recently. He used to be most interested in it."

The two quickly agreed, "There's something wrong with Monsanto!"

In the past half month, the futures market has been experiencing a death roll, but Monsanto seems to have suddenly disappeared.

Thinking of Callum's invitation to the dance, Barnes' face turned ferocious.

"Damn it, could this really be a setup by Monsanto?"

"I don't know." Duncan Malone shook his head and murmured, "Maybe I should go ask Monsanto."

AIG mobilized its connections and launched a full-scale investigation into Monsanto's activities.

...

A convoy of cars passed by on the road at the border between Missouri and Illinois.

Barnes and Duncan Malone felt disgusted when they saw the Asian carp jumping several meters high in the river.

The Mississippi River has been taken over by this creature and has become the world of Asian carp.

Let every American hate it.

It can’t be eaten, and it’s impossible to catch them all. If you put some chemical pesticides, the local fish will die, but it’s still alive and well. The river ecology has been seriously affected!

There was news a few days ago that a strong man who participated in archery hunting for Asian carp was blown into the river by the tail of a fish weighing 100 kilograms.

The convoy eventually stopped at a soybean farm.

According to investigations, difficult weeds appeared on this farm. Glyphosate could not kill the weeds, and increasing the dosage would cause the soybean leaves to curl.

Because of the weeds, the farm not only faces a significant reduction in yield, but also has to spend a lot of money to screen soybeans.

The farmer claimed that he planted Monsanto's Roundup 2 seeds, which were formulated with glyphosate.

After the investigation, Monsanto tried to negotiate with the farmer but failed to reach an agreement. Instead, it claimed that the farm may have purchased fake drugs or used them improperly.

This is very suspicious.

After a while, the two met the farmer David, who tearfully told them about his miserable experience.

"A month ago, there were a lot of weeds in the field, and they are out of control recently. There is still half a month before harvest. It would be great if we can get 330 kilograms. We estimate that the yield will be reduced by at least 15%! Or even 20%!"

"This weed reproduces very quickly and is extremely difficult to clean up. It also contains toxins. If eaten by animals, it will cause low blood pressure and abnormal nervous system. It is extremely troublesome to screen and separate it during harvesting."

A 15% reduction in production? Or even 20%!

Duncan Malone only noticed this number and his heart froze!
If it spreads, or has already spread, it will definitely be a major blow to this year's actual soybean production.

What about the cornfield?
Several people found this weed in the field.

Barnes from the forage industry thought it looked familiar. "It looks like a thorn tree. But it looks a bit weird."

"Is it difficult?"

"It's very difficult," Barnes said doubtfully, "but in theory, glyphosate should at least kill the above-ground part of the plant."

Confused, the two went to the corn farm again.

The corn and soybean producing areas in the north have basically not been harvested yet, and the group easily discovered that there are many more of these weeds in the corn fields.

The two men had a growing premonition: Monsanto must have known about it a long time ago!
They definitely know!

Why not announce it to the public?

No, in fact, the outside world had already known about this news a long time ago, but it was not taken seriously, or it may have been deliberately downplayed.

The two recalled their discoveries of the past few days.

They were traveling from New Orleans.

From south to north, the south is suffering from the infestation of red fire ants, which is known to the whole United States.

This is also within the agency's forecast. The federal corn production has decreased this year, which is one of the main reasons. This is reflected in the market as higher grain prices in the early stage!
But the invasion, damage and spread of red fire ants have obviously accelerated!

Some corn, soybean and cotton fields have been invaded terribly, and the production reduction is definitely beyond the agency's prediction.

Now there are tough weeds again in the north.

Red fire ants spread from south to north, and weeds spread from north to south. The two soon realized the seriousness of the matter.

This is definitely not something that Monsanto alone can hide. Who else could it be? Dow Chemical? DuPont Pioneer?
The two didn't want to investigate further.

What is important now is to find an authoritative organization to support us!
At present, this information is enough to recover their losses in the futures market and even make a profit.

...

When farmers encounter pests, diseases or weeds that they cannot solve, their first reaction is to contact agricultural chemical service companies.

The agricultural chemical service company will once again find a factory responsible for production and research and development.

One of them is Dow AgroSciences, headquartered in Indianapolis, Indiana. Indiana and Illinois are adjacent to each other and are also major agricultural production areas.

Dow AgroSciences is a wholly owned subsidiary of Dow Chemical, the largest chemical company in the United States.

Dow AgroSciences is also one of the world's top five multinational pesticide companies. It has strong capabilities in herbicides, insecticides, fungicides, urban sanitation drugs, and even biotechnology.

Recently, they have encountered a series of difficult problems.

First, the red fire ants in the south are madly attacking the city as the existing pesticides are gradually becoming ineffective.

Then, tough weeds appeared in Illinois, Missouri, Indiana, Iowa and other states.

For Leo Osei, chief technologist at Dow AgroSciences, the situation is serious, but only slightly tricky.

And the more and more serious the problems are, it is good for them in some ways.

In the laboratory.

A researcher in a white coat came over with the latest information.

"Professor Leo, we have the result. This is a new type of weed, similar to Tribulus terrestris, but some of its characteristics are completely enhanced, and it is extremely dangerous."

There was a strong sense of fear in the assistant's expression.

Leo took the document and looked at it, raising an eyebrow, "The concentration of alkaloids is so high?"

The assistant motioned for more reading and said, "This weed also has a variety of genes that can resist herbicides, blocking the herbicide from interfering with its growth."

"Multiple kinds?" Leo asked, while quickly looking at them.

"At least five. In fact, it is very likely that all herbicides currently on the market will have little effect on it, but the strongest resistance is still glyphosate. The EPSP synthase gene in glyphosate is the most active in plant ingredients."

"How can this be?"

However, no matter how much he disbelieved it, the cold genetic code in the experiment was recorded there.

This weed contains the genes of several popular herbicides in North America... It's like a mixture?

The assistant continued, "This weed has a very short growth cycle. It can produce a large number of seeds in just over a month, and it spreads very quickly."

"If this trend continues, large tracts of farmland in the Midwest will be filled with this weed by next year."

The situation is serious, of course, and not just for farmers and the federal Department of Agriculture.

For some companies, it is a fatal blow.

People's concerns about GMOs seem to have come true. In just a few years, weeds have developed such terrible resistance that it will also cause environmental problems.

There are also red fire ants, whose resistance evolution speed is also easy to arouse people's associations.

In addition to biological invasion, is this also due to GMOs?

After all, the frequency of use of chemical pesticides in federal agricultural areas is extremely high, especially Monsanto's Roundup glyphosate, which covers the entire United States.

It is hard not to worry. If genetically modified organisms continue to develop, will similar animals and plants appear in the future?
If this research report were to be released, Dow AgroSciences would not be immune to the consequences, but Monsanto would undoubtedly suffer the most.

At the same time, things have two sides. When problems and troubles arise, there are also opportunities.

...

Monsanto, St. Louis, Missouri.

Brett Biggman, president and chief operating officer, convened the meeting in a conference room at headquarters.

As the global leader in genetically modified organism application technology, Monsanto is always at the center of controversy.

When people mention agricultural genetic modification technology, the first thing that comes to mind is Monsanto;

When people mention the dangers of genetically modified agricultural products, the first thing that comes to mind is Monsanto;

When people curse GMO technology, the first target is Monsanto.

But this has never stopped Monsanto's development.

The application of biotechnology in crop breeding is one of Monsanto's masterpieces.

All agricultural products that use Monsanto's genetically modified technology have significantly increased their disease resistance and yield.

90% of the genetically modified crops grown worldwide use Monsanto technology, and many of Monsanto's products dominate the United States and the world.

They consider themselves to be figures like Bruno and Copernicus, and their insistence on the truth is not understood and is even cursed by the ignorant and superstitious traditional conservative forces.

Even in the face of doubt, resistance and slander, we are still on the right path.

Everyone believes that the future is better.

however,
When Brett, the usually strong-willed president, told them that Monsanto was facing huge troubles, even a life-and-death crisis, most people were stunned.

"what happened?"

"Is today April Fool's Day?"

“Our herbicides and seeds are selling like hot cakes, so how come this is a life-or-death crisis?”

Brett motioned for everyone to be quiet.

Then he looked at the heads of research and development at Monsanto's three major seed companies: Deca, Asgro and Monsoy.

Deca Seeds, which is responsible for developing and producing crop varieties for the federal Midwestern agricultural production areas;
Asgro, for North and South America;

Monsoy, Brazil’s largest soybean seed producer;
All three of them knew something about the situation.

After hesitating for a moment, Garcia, the technical director of Deka Seed Company who was most familiar with the situation, spoke up:
"In the Midwest, a weed has been found growing extensively in soybean and corn fields that is highly resistant to the herbicide Roundup."

“It’s stronger than the Roundup II soybean seeds we carefully cultivated, and we haven’t found a way to deal with it yet.”

"This weed is a mutation of Tribulus terrestris."

"It is currently spreading rapidly in the Midwest, and once it is infected, crop yields will be greatly reduced."

Following Garcia's voice, the faces of Monsanto executives attending the meeting all became solemn.

I soon realized the seriousness of the matter.

Roundup glyphosate herbicide was invented more than 40 years ago and has long passed its patent period. It is currently being produced in countries all over the world.

The output is highest in China.

But this does not prevent it from being an important business for Monsanto, and it is even more effective when combined with Roundup-resistant seeds.

Seeds and herbicides are Monsanto's main sources of revenue.

In 2007, Roundup-resistant soybean varieties were planted on 4.35 million acres of federal soybean acreage, accounting for 95% of federal soybean plantings.

The planting area of ​​Roundup-resistant type 1.94 genetically modified corn also exceeded 40 million acres this year, accounting for % of the federal corn planting area.

Genetically modified seeds are the foundation of Monsanto's successful transformation.

If glyphosate fails to kill weeds, farmers will not only stop buying their herbicides, but may also throw away the seeds.

You may also face extremely strong public opinion risks!

How do weeds mutate?
It must be the fault of GMOs!
Quantitative change leads to qualitative change. In just ten years, it has caused plant mutations and an ecological and environmental crisis.

What's next?
This weed will become the best weapon in the hands of opponents of GMOs.

It is no exaggeration to describe it as a life-and-death crisis.

quiet!
It's so quiet!
“Don’t be too depressed.”

Brett broke the silence and said, "The biotechnology department is working hard to uncover the genes of this weed."

"Monsanto's agricultural biotechnology is the world's leading technology. It is impossible for others to come up with a solution before us."

Someone asked, “How long will that take?”

"At least 1-2 years, maybe longer." Brett said, "And it will soon be impossible to hide it."

"As more and more farms are plagued by weeds and harvest begins, there will be more and more negative news."

“This requires everyone to work together, on the one hand to strengthen new product research, and on the other hand to be prepared to deal with the storm.”

"These two years will be the most difficult two years for Monsanto."

After the meeting, everyone was silent, ready to face this sudden storm!

Brett also contacted the futures trading department separately to prepare for the market reversal.

...

Similar to Dow AgroSciences and Monsanto, DuPont Pioneer Hi-Bred and DuPont Crop Protection also noticed the abnormality.

Weeds in the northern Great Plains and red fire ants in the south are out of control. DuPont realized the seriousness of the matter as soon as the latest research report came out.

Moreover, in DuPont's investigation and analysis, the harm caused by red fire ants is obviously more serious and their damage to the soil is stronger!
But DuPont chose to keep it secret for the time being, as no one wanted to be involved in such things.

They also know that the problem cannot be hidden.

The farmer knew that something was wrong, although he was not sure why. But as things got bigger and bigger, they were bound to explode.

However, this time difference is enough for some people to maximize their interests.
-
While undercurrents were surging in North America, the land in the East was welcoming a picture of a bumper harvest.

Soybeans and corn have been harvested one after another, and the harvest is as expected. The news of high and super high yields that break out from time to time is a hot topic.

But in fact, the situation in the industry is not that easy. How to absorb excess production capacity has become a new problem.

Compared with the slight drop in soybean prices, the pressure in the corn market is obviously much greater.

Even if large corn processing companies such as Jiahe, Guochuliang, Guoliang, and Yufeng Industrial try their best to stockpile corn, they cannot stop the surge in production.

The office of a farm in Yumen.

Chen Yanqiu, director of international grain trade at Jiahe Grain & Oil, sat on the sofa, sipping tea and expressing his doubts.

"Domestic corn prices are falling faster than those abroad. The profits from the price difference and export tax rebates are okay, but if you don't sell quickly, the profits will get lower and lower, or even lose money, once the price difference narrows."

This is his judgment based on the current situation.

As corn harvest progresses, subsequent price pressure will become increasingly heavier.

At this time, grain trade must have a fast enough turnover rate to be profitable and to alleviate domestic surplus pressure.

However, the boss suddenly slowed down the pace of exports.

He was very puzzled.

Guo Yang did not intend to tell him the reason, just like Gao De and others did not know why they should speed up the building of long positions.

"The domestic corn price is too low, which is not conducive to social stability. Well, some people are taking their anger out on Tianhe."

"Is the boss optimistic about the future price? He thinks there is room for price to rise."

"Yeah." Guo Yang smiled and said, "The price of crude oil is too high. Theoretically, as long as the price of crude oil is above $50 per barrel, bioenergy has a future. At the current price, bioenergy can be considered lucrative."

To Chen Yanqiu, this reason was too far-fetched.

But he knew that his boss must have his reasons, and his huge success in futures made him choose to trust him unconditionally.

Guo Yang said: "If you have time, you can go to the northwest more often. Many scenic spots are very beautiful during this period."

"Yeah." Chen Yanqiu smiled and said, "I plan to go to Xinjiang Province to check out the cotton."

Guo Yang calmed down and said, "Okay."

During this period, cotton harvesting has gradually entered the harvest season, but cotton is mainly picked by hand, and generally once a week at this time.

Machine-picked cotton has to wait until it is fully mature, and picking usually starts around the beginning of winter.

The farms that planted Tianmian 20 also had a bumper harvest. Compared with last year, this year's high yield was more stable, and 500 kilograms was the entry standard.

However, prices have dropped compared to last year, and there is still an overall oversupply.

However, most farmers can still make money from cotton.

It is far less tragic than the corn market.

Corn farmers have a love-hate relationship with Tianhe Seeds. It can bring extremely high yields, but the profits are not as good as last year.

Farmers who did not plant or buy Tianhe seeds are more resentful.

As for other seed companies, distributors, and agricultural supply trading companies, they have shown strong hostility towards Tianhe Seeds during this round of decline.

On the one hand, he has long been intimidated by Tianhe's oppression and has been struggling to survive in the seed market. Now that he finally has the chance, he must vent his anger.

Secondly, there is a serious oversupply of corn, and if it is not profitable, it will definitely affect the seed market next year. I couldn't eat meat to begin with, and now even the amount of soup in my bowl has become less, how can I not hate it.

However, Tianhe has kept a low profile recently, trying its best to avoid being caught with any stains or spending money to avoid disaster.

At the same time, a group of people who spread rumors and slander were arrested to serve as a warning to others.

In addition to seed companies, Tianhe also has to deal with the "concern" from the grain and oil industry.

No one expected that the end of the rising trend of edible oil prices might come from seed companies!

First, soybean prices fell and then rebounded, and then corn plummeted, which led to a drop in soybean prices again.

This has also attracted great attention in the grain and oil industry.

Guo Guangfeng, chairman of Wilmar International and Wilmar International Group, expressed his helplessness at a press conference on an investment investigation.

"The sharp drop in corn prices has not only hurt farmers, but has also caused problems for grain and oil processing companies."

The reporter asked: "Isn't the decline in raw material prices a good thing? Edible oil processing plants have been raising prices recently because of high costs."

Guo Guangfeng said: "It was too sudden."

Countless people curled their lips, meaning that Wilmar International must still have a lot of grain stocks!

The reporter asked: "Corn in the producing areas is seriously unsalable now. Will Wilmar International take on its social responsibility and increase its corn purchases?"

"I suggest you ask Jiahe, the instigator, why they have slowed down their corn purchases recently."

"Does this mean that Yihai will not aggressively purchase corn at this time?"

Guo Guangfeng did not answer, but many people speculated that it must be the case. Acquisitions during a downward trend are not a wise move.

“When will the price of Golden Arowana drop?”

Guo Guangfeng did not give an answer to this question, which cast a shadow on the investment press conference that day.

Compared with Yihai’s shyness, Luhua’s chairman Sun Mengquan is much more direct.

"Luhua peanut oil will not be reduced in price! The price of peanut raw materials is high and there is no room for price reduction."

"Luhua is a high-end edible oil brand. We are confident in our products. Luhua is also very interested in peanut breeding research and hopes to cooperate with a strong seed company like Tianhe."

"Corn farmers have suffered heavy losses. Luhua will appropriately store corn and develop and produce corn oil products."

In addition to Guo Guangfeng and Sun Mengquan, industry leaders such as Ambutei of Cargill China, Shi Kerong of Huifu Grain and Oil, and Ning Gaoning of Guoliang have expressed their opinions on different occasions.

Some people accused Golden Harvest of disrupting the market; others said they would cut prices;
Some people also promised to increase their acquisition efforts to maintain market stability.

But everyone undoubtedly mentioned Jiahe, believing that Jiahe was the culprit for the unsale of corn and deliberately concealed and misled Tianyu's sales situation, catching everyone off guard.

Bunge China CEO Yang Tairen even directly criticized Jiahe Grain and Oil.

"Jiahe has completely violated its purpose of serving farmers. Just due to the unsalable corn, Chinese farmers will lose hundreds of billions of yuan this year!"

"As for Jiahe, after making crazy profits in the futures market, it is still hesitating and waiting on the purchase and processing of corn, trying to gain more profits!"

"Science cannot be hijacked by greed. Jiahe's insatiable behavior is pushing countless farmers into the abyss."

Unlike the Internet industry giants who frequently make headlines together, grain and oil leaders are mostly low-key and rarely appear in public, and they are never seen together.

Now, they have expressed the same opinion on the same matter.

This scene is extremely rare.

The impact it brought was also extraordinary.

The pressure on Jiahe is also enormous.

In particular, Jiahe's factory has slowed down the pace of purchasing corn, which seems to send a signal to the industry.

Jiahe is not optimistic about the future of corn.

This also caused other processing companies to slow down their acquisition pace, for fear that Jiahe would release some unexpected news again.

When seeing such analysis, Guo Yang, who had been hiding in the countryside, couldn't help but smile.

"Every move is really being watched, but I just guessed the opposite. Jiahe slowed down the purchase because the warehouse was already full of grain."

“But the pressure is definitely increasing.”

Just recently, Director Nie called and asked why Jiahe suspended the acquisition. Was it because it encountered problems with exports?

Guo Yang could only deal with it ambiguously and informed Jiahe that the warehouse was full of grain and that he had done his best.

This is not a long-term solution.

Since the output far exceeded expectations, most farmers were reluctant to sell even though the price was low enough.

Because the slower you act, the lower the price is likely to be.

Especially the Tianyu growers, as soon as the harvest season comes, they will contact Jiahe’s factory to purchase, for fear that if they are slow, their existing profits will be lost.

This is already panic selling.

But Guo Yang knew that the price should have reached its limit.

In fact, the more Jiahe hoards at this time, the more it will earn after the price rebounds.

However, the warehouses are already full, so there is no need to speed up exports, as this will only benefit foreign traders.

Jiahe would never publicly announce that its warehouses were full of grain. What if others also increased their purchases? Wouldn’t that be aiding the enemy?
It would be better to store it in the hands of farmers.

Farmers who can withstand this wave of psychological pressure will also reap rich rewards after the rebound.

Can't bear it?
The farming industry can be so cruel sometimes.

At this time, Guo Yang still prefers the unruly attitude of the farmers in previous years. If they say they don’t want to sell, then they don’t sell. I just don’t want to sell!

I won’t sell it even if the sky falls!
Instead of the panic look he has now.

...

Jiuquan Shangba.

Guo Yang observed the grain and oil processing factory through the car window. There were several grain trucks lined up outside the factory gate.

But more farmers come to ask when it will be their turn.
Today, although Jiahe’s processing plant is operating at full capacity, there are too many farmers contacting for purchase every day, and most of them are notified to queue up.

The longer the team was, the more anxious Guo Yang felt.

After watching outside the door for a while, Guo Yang asked Luo Xiu to drive into the factory. As soon as they entered the factory, they saw the factory director Liao Hongxin being surrounded from front and back by several large-scale growers.

Liao Hongxin also noticed the boss's car and signaled him to hurry up, but Guo Yang asked Luo Xiu to stop.

It doesn't matter if you haven't encountered it, but avoiding it when you see it is not a solution.

After getting off the car, the wealthy people were still making a lot of noise.

"Director Liao, when will it be my turn? The price is dropping so fast that it makes me panic!"

"Director Liao, my family is just waiting to sell the grain for cooking."

"Since we have been cooperating with Tianhe for so many years and I buy seeds from Tianhe every year, Director Liao, please accept my grain!"

"Why did you take over the Tianbao Cooperative first? Do you look down on our Shenghui Planting Cooperative? Be careful or I will file a complaint against you!"

Seeing Liao Hongxin rushing forward, Zhang Quan from Shenghui Corn Professional Planting Cooperative shouted.

Suddenly a voice came from behind.

"Who do you want to complain to? Tell me!"

Liao Hongxin also broke free at this time and greeted, "Chairman, why are you here?"

Several large-scale growers were stunned and felt a little scared, because this was a big shot.

Jiahe is not as friendly as it seems. The miserable conditions of some farmers and businesses in the surrounding area that participated in counterfeiting are still vivid in people’s minds.

Only Zhang Quan from Shenghui Cooperative was still a little dissatisfied and said: "I want to complain about him!"

"Just because someone else is ahead of you?"

"Isn't that enough?" Zhang Quan said angrily, "The grain price is falling so fast now. If we don't sell it, we will lose money."

"Yes, big boss, Jiahe is a big company, please be kind to us. We are all professional grain growers and we rely on the income from selling grain every year."

Guo Yang looked at these people. There are actually not many professional grain growers in Jiuquan.

The Jiahe factory mainly processes sunflower, cotton seeds, wheat and corn. Although the production capacity is not high, the waiting time is not too long.

Ultimately, it was the widespread publicity in society that caused the temporary selling panic.

After thinking for a while, Guo Yang smiled and said, "Director Liao is helping you. The price of grain will go up later."

"Increase? How?"

"This year, there are reports of corn surpluses all over the country, 8000 million tons! Even overseas countries have been affected, how can prices rise?"

"Yes, if we can sell it quickly, we would rather sell it at a loss."

Guo Yang looked surprised and asked, "Are you really selling it at a loss?"

Several people looked hesitant.

"In previous years, the price was low and you all knew how to be reluctant to sell. This year, the harvest has just started, and you are all rushing to sell grain. How can the price be high?"

"What if it's a loss?" Zhang Quan suddenly asked, "Will Jiahe buy it out like it did last year?"

Just then, the phone in Guo Yang's pocket rang. It was Gao De. After answering the call, Guo Yang couldn't help laughing.

"If you really want to sell grain today, Jiahe will take it, but don't regret it."

Zhang Quan and his companions asked suspiciously, "Are you really going to take it?"

"Go back!" Seeing that the others were about to change their expressions, Guo Yang smiled again and said, "The price of grain will go up soon! You will really regret it if you sell it!"

The mood of several big investors suddenly became depressed.

I received a phone call and was told that the price was going to go up?
But the boss of Jiahe should not be so willing to defraud them. It's just a few dollars!
Then wait two more days?

After several big investors left, Guo Yang felt more relaxed.

Farmers don’t have to face this depressing market, and Jiahe can make one last grab!
Something finally happened in North America!
(End of this chapter)