Chapter 321 Golden Beans in the Saline Land (asking for monthly tickets!)
Jiuquan.

Guo Yang had just finished exercising when he saw the message from Shen Zhi.

The soybean base in Zepu is also estimated to have an output of more than 500 kilograms per mu.

The soybean yield per unit area varies greatly among different regions in the country. From a national perspective, the average yield per mu during this period was only 210 to 230 kilograms.

There are three main soybean producing areas in China: spring soybeans in Northeast China, summer soybeans in the Huanghuai River Basin, and summer soybeans south of the Yangtze River Basin.

In the Northeast, where production is the highest, it is relatively easy to produce more than 400 kilograms per mu on high-yield farmland.

In Shandong Province, in years with good weather and harvest, the average yield per mu has exceeded 350 kilograms, which is much higher than the national average.

But compared with the soybean yield per unit area in foreign countries, the output of domestic non-GMO soybeans is indeed far behind.

In particular, Monsanto’s Roundup 2 has begun to be promoted and will continue to maintain a high growth rate in yield in the next few years.

(PS: Yield comparison: kg/hectare)

...

After taking a shower, Guo Yang compiled the information sent by Shen Zhi onto his computer.

Including Jinta, there are a total of 100 million mu of saline-alkali land soybean bases, with a total output of 25 to 30 tons.

Compared with the approximately 3000 million tons of imported soybeans this year, the estimated total consumption of 4900 million tons is still a drop in the bucket.

But this only applies to the Jiahe saline-alkali land.

In June last year, Jiahe invested 6 billion yuan to enter the grain and oil industry and made large-scale acquisitions.

At the same time, several typical high-oil and high-yield soybean planting bases have been established in the Northwest, Northeast, Huanghuaihai, and Southwest.

This part mainly adopts the model of contract farming.

Excluding cases where farmers breach contracts, the contracted area is at least nearly 10 million mu.

Most of the soybean seeds sown in these bases are Tiandou No. 1, and a small amount are Tiandou No. 7 and Tiandou No. 8 (soybean seeds for coastal areas).

Calculated based on a yield of 480 kilograms per mu, Jiahe's total soybean production is approximately 265 million to 275 million tons.

When Jiahe Grain, Oil and Soybean Processing is running at full capacity, the daily production capacity is about 2 tons, which is more than four months of processing volume.

However, in the two main producing areas of Northeast China and Huanghuaihai, the planting area of ​​Tiandou No. 1 this year is also not to be underestimated.

But this year there is both drought and flood, plus the land grab by Tianyu 1.

The outside world is generally not very optimistic about the soybean production in these two producing areas.

In the Sanjiang Plain of Heilongjiang Province, which is the main producing area, 2000 million mu of soybeans were affected by drought, and some seedlings died.

Data such as production reduction of 10%, 20%, 30%, 40%, etc. are emerging one after another.

This has already been reflected in the futures market.

However, Guo Yang still has expectations for Tiandou No. 1, with a yield of 480 kilograms per mu. Even if the yield is reduced by half, it will still be 240 kilograms.

Still exceeded media expectations.

Thinking of this, Guo Yang called Xue Liqiang.

"Mr. Xue, how is the soybean production in Northeast China this year? What is the estimated production data?"

"Not even a word of greeting?"

"Mr. Xue, good evening."

"..." Xue Liqiang slowed down and said in a low voice: "This year, soybeans in Heilongjiang Province were severely affected by drought, and the planting area also decreased by 610 million mu compared with last year, down to 5290 million mu."

A series of pessimistic data is no different from the outside world's predictions.

Guo Yang remained calm and asked, "What is the estimated total output?"

At the same time, I also looked at the total output of Heilongjiang Province last year on the computer: 672 million tons.

According to the expectations of most external institutions, the soybean production in Heilongjiang Province this year will be only around 490 to 500 million tons, with an average yield of less than 200 kilograms per mu.

Xue Liqiang said: "Alas, the estimated total output is only a little over 800 million tons."

"It's okay." Guo Yang said lightly.

"Just okay? You're not surprised at all? Or do you not know last year's production?" Xue Liqiang said in surprise:
"Last year's total output was only over 600 million tons. This is an increase of over 100 million tons compared to last year! It's an increase!"

"This is an increase in production against the trend. The area has decreased by more than 600 million mu, and it has also been affected by drought. Don't you feel a little bit upset?"

Guo Yang smiled and said, "Isn't this as it should be? You had high expectations for Tiandou No. 1. And the number is similar to what I estimated. I still know how many seeds were sold to the Northeast."

"There's nothing to be excited about. After all, the average yield per mu in Heilongjiang Province has just reached 300 kilograms, which is the same as in America. The situation of soybean imports has not changed."

Xue Liqiang remained silent.

Do you really have to compare with foreign countries?

Isn’t it better than last year?
a long time.

"Are the seeds produced this year enough? The agricultural reclamation should introduce Tiandou No. 1 on a large scale next year."

Guo Yang looked at the statistical data on the computer and found that the planting ratio of Tiandou No. 1 in Heilongjiang Province was already quite large.

2380 million mu, accounting for 45%.

Jiusan Grain and Oil and Agricultural Reclamation have done their best. You should know that Agricultural Reclamation also has a soybean seed company under its umbrella.

Every extra point that Tiandou holds is equivalent to cutting the flesh of its seed company.

45%.

That's enough.

And just like Tianyu No. 1, too single variety is not necessarily a good thing.

Guo Yang pondered and said, "The proportion of Tiandou No. 1 is enough, and we can promote Tiandou No. 8 next."

"Tendou 8?"

"Yes, this variety was only introduced in the middle of last year and was only planted this year. It is also suitable for the Northeast region and has a higher yield, but its effect in improving saline-alkali soil is a level lower."

"That's enough, that's enough." Xue Liqiang said repeatedly: "Then next year we will vigorously promote Tiandou No. 8 and cross-plant it with Tiandou No. 1."

“Do you want to try planting first?”

"No need, just push it. Tianhe said it can produce high yields, so it will definitely produce high yields."

Guo Yang smiled and asked, "800 million tons, how many people know this estimated data?"

“Very few.”

"Okay, congratulations."

"Happy together."

Maybe the counterattack will start from here?

Guo Yang thought so.

Last year, domestic soybean production barely stabilized at around 1 million tons due to the promotion of Tiandou No. 1700, which marked a turning point in history.

This year, Heilongjiang Province has achieved 800 million tons.

This was achieved despite the fact that the drought reduced the yield by an average of more than 30 kilograms per mu.

The data from Jilin Province is difficult to verify.

But the data from Heilongjiang Province is roughly consistent with Tianhe’s seed sales data, so Jilin Province is not much different.

This year, the soybean planting area in Jilin Province is 750 million mu, a decrease of 135 million mu from the previous year.

If the province's per-mu yield is calculated as 300 jin, then it would be 112.5 million tons.

Including 60 tons in Liaoning Province.

The entire Northeast production area is 970 million tons.

The summer soybean area of ​​the Huanghuaihai region is not far behind, at about 900 million tons.

In other production areas, the influence of the Tiandou series is not that great, but there are still some sales.

Especially there are coastal saline-alkali lands.

Last year, Alfalfa No. 1 improved about 800 million mu of saline-alkali land, and Tiandou No. 1 improved about 100 million mu of land.

The effect is remarkable.

This year, the supply of Tiandou No. 1 seeds is sufficient, filling the space left by Alfalfa No. 1.

The area of ​​saline-alkali land under cultivation is about 10 million acres.

That’s another 200 million plus tons.

All in all, the national soybean planting area should have stabilized this year, still at around 1.35 million mu.

After a series of estimates, Guo Yang came up with a rough production figure.

2800~3000 million tons!

Compared with last year, the output increased by more than 60%.

This is an extremely scary number.

Even if someone sent out this statistic, it would be hard to believe.

It will definitely raise all kinds of questions.

Moreover, few institutions can accurately predict this year's soybean production because the emergence of Tianhe has broken the inherent rules.

Even if the National Bureau of Statistics comes, it may not be as fast and accurate as Tianhe's estimates.

……

Guo Yang made himself a cup of sesame tea, his thoughts still racing.

The total domestic soybean consumption is expected to be 4900 million tons this year. Based on last year's production of 1700 million tons, 3200 million tons will need to be imported.

Taking into account factors such as inventory and expectations of production cuts, general institutions estimate that this year's import volume will be more than 3000 million tons.

But now the actual output may have reached 3000 million tons, and the gap is only 1900 million tons.

This is 1100 million tons less than the agency's estimate.

Guo Yang is analyzing the possible impact, which is related to Jiahe Grain and Oil's strategy in the futures market.

The conclusion is that it has greater practical significance and can greatly boost the domestic soybean industry and people’s confidence.

You know, according to historical trajectory, by 2020, my country's total annual soybean consumption will have reached 1.2 million tons, but only 1960 million tons will be produced domestically, and 83% will rely on imports.

Now is the time when people's confidence is low, and they will become numb in the future.

Although production has increased, the bullish trend in the futures market will not change in the face of trillions of dollars pouring into the subprime mortgage and financial markets.

What’s more, disasters have continued around the world this year.

Food production is declining everywhere.

So going long is still very stable.

But what about next year?

China's soybean production has increased against the trend this year, so will it increase dramatically next year?
The agencies certainly think so.

Guo Yang was thinking about how to make use of the information gap in his hands. The information about the reverse increase in domestic soybeans this year could temporarily suppress prices.

Jiahe Grain and Oil can do T on a small scale, and then take the opportunity to increase positions and go long.

But the further we go, the greater the pressure on expected growth next year will be, and institutions may become bearish in advance.

But there is another variable in North America: red fire ants and tribulus terrestris.

Domestic soybean production increased, while North American soybean production decreased, and the increase and decrease offset each other.

Therefore, it is still quite stable to be bullish.

After writing down all the analyses, data and nodes one by one, Guo Yang fell into a deep sleep.

He slept very comfortably, and when he got outside the office, he couldn't wait to discuss the issue of increasing soybean production with Gao De.

He figured it out. Since he couldn't influence the general situation, it would be better to release it early to boost the confidence of the people.

By the way, suppress futures prices.

Jiahe Grain and Oil will follow the trend and do a T, so that subsequent funds will have better opportunities to enter the market.

You may not be able to hide it if you hold it in your hand, and you will feel uncomfortable in your heart.

When Gao De heard the estimated domestic soybean production, he was shocked and a little out of control.

"How much? 3000 million tons?"

"Yes, the error won't be too big." Guo Yang smiled. As expected, he felt much more comfortable after saying it out loud.

Gao De closed his lips tightly. The impact was too great. Suddenly, the soybean self-sufficiency rate increased from 30% to 60%.

The impact is too widespread.

"Should we prepare for a short position in advance?"

Guo Yang smiled but said nothing.

Gao De took a sip of tea, slowed down, thought, and tried to calm himself down.

The background is global financial risks. El Niño has led to a general reduction in global soybean production this year.

Last year, global production was 2.28 million tons, and is expected to decrease by about 6%, or 1368 million tons.

The increase in domestic soybean production of 3000 million-1700 million=1300 million tons is almost enough to turn the global decline into growth.

Gaode's heart is burning!

But the cold numbers also helped him regain his composure. This number has a great impact, but it will also bring many opportunities to Jiahe Grain and Oil. It all depends on how it is handled.

The boss looks confident?
Gao De watched quietly.

Guo Yang smiled and said, "The news will be released in the next two days. Jiahe Grain and Oil can sell part of it in advance and then buy it back at a low price. The remaining funds can also be used to enter the market."

“Are you still firmly bullish in the long term?”

"Yes." Guo Yang thought about it and revealed some information: "The soybean production in the United States may still be uncertain."

Gao De was stunned for a moment. Is there any change in America? That is the world's largest soybean producing area.

"Okay, I'll follow you."

"Call me when you're ready."

……

Gold nine silver ten.

All places have gradually entered the harvest season.

In some southern regions where rice matures early, rice harvesting begins in July.

But in Jiangsu Province, sea rice is still in a critical period of growth. The green seedlings are very strong and swaying in the wind.

However, sea rice is only one of the protagonists.

In comparison, alfalfa and soybeans are more attractive.

Tiandou No. 1 is planted on slightly to moderately saline-alkali land, while alfalfa is grown on moderately to heavily saline-alkali land.

At the end of the year, most of the salt in the ground was eaten up, and the income was quite good.

On a farmland in Yancheng, village cadre Zhang Yong was walking on the field road while answering the phone.

"It's gone, it's gone, there's nothing left at all. All the saline-alkali land that can be transferred has been contracted out. It's useless to ask anyone for help."

"Reclamation? You need to bring the approval documents."

"No compromise."

Zhang Yong used his hands to pull apart the soybean leaves, revealing the plump pods underneath. It looked like they would be ready for harvest soon.

Just then, a car stopped beside him and a pretty boy appeared.

The 'pretty boy' was a researcher at a securities firm named Zhang Jin. He handed over a cigarette in a familiar manner.

"Fellow countryman, how are the soybeans growing?"

"It's fine." Zhang Yong said with a smile, took the Huazi and started smoking.

"How many kilograms can you expect to harvest from one acre?"

Zhang Yong thought about it and said, "It's hard to estimate, but it should be around 400 to 500 kilograms."

Zhang Jin shuddered with fear.

"so tall?"

"This seed is good." Zhang Yong said with a smile: "In previous years, the good land around here can easily produce 300 to 400 kilograms as long as people are diligent."

Zhang Jin said suspiciously, "This place is not far from the coastline, it's all saline land, how can it have such a high yield? Don't frame me."

"Young man, do you know how to farm?" Zhang Yong took a puff of his cigarette and said, "Salt-alkali land is in great demand now. Even if there are bosses who want to contract it, there are no more."

“???” Zhang Jin looked confused. It’s only been the second year since the coastal saline-alkali land improvement project started, and there’s already no land left?

"If you can make money, you can't let others rush to grab it." Zhang Yong said: "Now what's left are some difficult tidal flats and ponds, which can only be reclaimed."

"Some are located within the ecological protection red line and wetland areas and cannot be developed or utilized."

“How much money is there?”

With this question in mind, researcher Zhang Jin conducted a more in-depth investigation in the surrounding area.

The most widely cultivated crop is alfalfa, followed by soybeans, and finally rice.

But there is no doubt that each of them can be said to have outstanding benefits in the planting industry.

In particular, the salt-absorbing properties of alfalfa and Tiandou No. 1 can improve the soil, which is extremely attractive to farmers and cooperatives.

This is a long-term deal.

After it was confirmed that money could be made, all coastal saline-alkali lands with development value were contracted out in advance.

What shocked him during the investigation was that the estimates of soybean production were generally over 400 kilograms.

How much saline-alkali land is used to grow soybeans?
It is difficult to come up with recent statistics, but we can speculate and by combining local statistical data, we can get a rough estimate.

There are not many researchers like him who go deep into the fields, and even fewer who focus their research on coastal saline-alkali land.

More people are focusing on the main production areas.

After returning to the company, Zhang Jin sent his investigation results to his supervisor Qiu Ying.

Qiu Ying just took a quick look and frowned unconsciously, and then her frown got deeper and deeper.

"The soybean planting area in Jiangsu Province is 470 million mu? Zhang Jin, are you sure you are not mistaken? This area has increased by nearly 150 million mu compared to last year! Are you crazy, or are the farmers crazy?"

"And this estimated total production is over a million tons. How did you get this?"

Zhang Jin said: "A lot of soybeans are planted on the saline-alkali land along the coast of Jiangsu Province. The increased area and yield all come from here."

"Farmers in various places are unwilling to grow soybeans because the benefits are not good. Even if it is saline-alkali land, the cost of reclamation is not low. Can growing soybeans be profitable?"

Qiu Ying still had some doubts, but her tone softened a lot.

She still remembers last year's news that 1000 million mu of arable land was added to the coastal saline-alkali land.

This year the situation is even more intense.

But even if it is saline-alkali land, it seems that forage grass is the main force for improvement!

Zhang Jin said: "Tianhe's soybean seeds are quite special. They are salt-tolerant and can absorb salt. The yield is also very high. The estimated yield of the farmers we asked is 400 to 500 kilograms."

"Hmm..." Qiu Ying pondered for a while and said, "If it is true, it will be of great reference value."

In the next few days, Qiu Ying and Zhang Jin retrieved data from other regions and further confirmed this judgment.

There are variables in this year's soybean production.

Not only in Jiangsu Province, but also in Shandong, Hebei, Tianjin, Liaoning and other provinces, there are many more saline-alkali soil soybeans.

And not only the planting area, but also the soybean yield in various places has become confusing.

How many soybeans are there on coastal saline-alkali land? How much has the yield in Northeast China and Huanghuaihai decreased? Or is it that the plants died, but the yield per mu increased compared to last year?
The securities firm couldn't figure it out, so fortunately it used the researcher's estimated data.

Then reported it truthfully.

And it soon attracted widespread attention in the securities market.

At the beginning, most people were skeptical.

After all, in Jiangsu Province alone, the soybean planting area increased by 150 million mu, and the total output also increased significantly by hundreds of thousands of tons, crossing the one million ton mark for the first time.

No matter how you look at this data, it's a bit incredible.

But if you pay a little attention, you can notice that there are many more reports about saline-alkali land in various places this year.

"Agricultural deserts are transformed into fertile fields, and saline-alkali land is expected to have a good harvest - Dongying, Shandong Province, has tapped the potential of soybean cultivation in saline-alkali land, actively developed and introduced new salt-alkali tolerant varieties, and gradually turned "agricultural deserts" into "ecological granaries."

"The Yellow River Delta paints an ecological picture, and high-quality forage grass turns the white salt-alkali land into pastoral green."

"Refine the saline-alkali land and cultivate the soybean fields..."

"In the arid saline-alkali land northwest of Jinta, golden soybeans are rolling like waves, and heavy pods are hanging on the branches - Long Province Daily."

Shandong Province, Jiangsu Province, Hebei Province, Liaoning Province, Zhejiang Province... As long as the districts and counties involved in saline-alkali land improvement, they have issued reports, which are all impressive political achievements.

Every report mentioned the increase in arable land, the transformation of desert into fertile land, and the transformation of low-yield land into high-yield land.

Unlike last year when the focus was entirely on the coastal areas, this year even the saline-alkali land in the northwest has also been heard.

There are also related reports in Xinjiang Province and Gansu Province.

All of a sudden, people who paid attention to this matter discovered that in the past six months or so, there seemed to be saline-alkali land everywhere around them.

In these reports, in addition to high-quality forage, there is another variety that is frequently mentioned: Tiandou No. 1.

It is also a salt-tolerant variety.

It is also under Tianhe Seed Industry.

How much more arable land will be added this year? In addition to alfalfa, how much will be soybeans?

...

Jiuquan.

Guo Yang also paid attention to the information of the grain and oil market, and couldn't help but sigh that there are still some sensitive institutions.

Fortunately, we made preparations early.

By this time, it was September 10th, and spring soybeans had already begun to be harvested in some areas.

The two main production areas, Huanghuaihai and Northeast China, are also preparing to start harvesting.

Gao De has been gone for eight or nine days.

During this period, the two communicated every day. Now, the warehouses and funds that need to be adjusted at home and abroad are almost ready.

There was no need to worry about it anymore. Guo Yang immediately asked Fu Qiuyan to cooperate with Tianhe’s people to increase the relevant publicity efforts.

the next day.

"Grain and Oil Market News" published an ad hoc article: dormant saline-alkali land becomes new granary, soybean production is expected to increase by more than 10 million tons.

Details of temporary changes in domestic soybean production.

"The output of the two main soybean producing areas, Northeast China and Huanghuaihai, has increased instead of decreased, achieving a substantial growth against the trend despite a significant reduction in the sown area."

"The soybeans in Jinta, Zepu and other arid areas of Northwest China have achieved a bumper harvest, with an output of nearly 600 kilograms per mu, and the salt-alkali tolerant soybeans have broken the high yield record again."

"Jiahe has quietly expanded into the summer soybean area south of the Yangtze River, with contract farming covering nearly 10 million mu of land."

"It is estimated that the total soybean production in China in 2007 is likely to exceed 3000 million tons. How can we achieve self-sufficiency in soybeans? The emergence of new saline-alkali tolerant soybean strains provides a perfect answer!"

Soon after, other media also reported the news, and some professional websites even reprinted it directly.

Titles are usually simple and direct.

Total soybean production exceeded 3000 million tons!

Exceptionally eye-catching.

As time went by, Tianhe and officials from all over the country accepted interviews one after another, talking a lot about saline-alkali land improvement and Tiandou No. 1.

"Breeding is both a science and an art. In July, at the soybean breeding base of Tianhe Seed Industry in Jiaxiang, Shandong Province, young researchers wearing straw hats and bending over sweated profusely while de-tasseling and pollinating the soybeans. They were developing high-yield soybeans that are salt-tolerant and alkali-tolerant, aiming for the next high-yield record."

"This is not the first victory of Tiandou No. 1. It has spread all over the country. In Northeast China, Huanghuaihai, Hexi Corridor and Xinjiang Province, soybean saline-alkali land has been transformed into fertile soybean fields."

"Tianhe will expand research on super-high yield and salt-alkali tolerance in soybeans, obtain high-yield and salt-alkali tolerance genes, and cultivate new soybean varieties with high and stable yields, suitable for large-scale production, and high comprehensive benefits."

"Tiandou No. 1 does not have the highest yield. We also have Tiandou No. 7 and Tiandou No. 8, as well as Tiandou No. 6 for high-altitude and cold areas..."

“The utilization of marginal lands such as saline-alkali land and desert is the best solution to expand the planting area.”

The situation is escalating.

The news channel also published a special report: How to turn saline-alkali land into fertile farmland?
A reporter also asked the Ministry of Agriculture spokesperson: "How much coastal saline-alkali land has been converted into arable land this year?"

"More than 3000 million mu, the details will have to wait for the results of this year's project acceptance."

"I heard that there is no salt-alkali land in Binhai anymore?"

"Some of the land was only contracted in the past two months and will not be improved until next year. The rest are large tidal flats and ponds, which will take three to four years to reclaim and renovate. Some wetlands and ecological protection areas cannot be used for agricultural development."

The spokesperson only gave an approximate number, but it was shocking enough.

Last year it was 1000 million mu, this year it is 3000 million mu, more than 4000 million mu of arable land has been added in two years!

This is a great joy!

Various media outlets spread the news, and local TV stations conducted interviews in the fields every day.

As a result, saline-alkali land has frequently appeared in the "How to Get Rich" column recently.

"High-yield soybeans are growing in the saline-alkali land of the Yellow River Delta."

"Wang E was under tremendous pressure and changed 1200 mu of water-consuming rice to soybeans. At the time of harvest, the yield of 500 kilograms surprised the grower. You should know that in 2006, the average yield of soybeans in my country was only more than 220 kilograms per mu."

"With just this one move, Wang E's annual income reached more than one million yuan."

The audience also enjoys watching these programs.

How easy it is to grow food!

This output and this income are really eye-catching.

Under such circumstances, the whole society is inexplicably filled with a sense of joy.

This also caused an uproar in the grain and oil market.

This was a wake-up call for the hot soybean market, with both the November contract and forward contract of Dalian Commodity Exchange's No. 1 yellow soybean experiencing a sharp correction.

Even the No. 2 soybean contract, which is deeply affected by the global market, saw a chain reaction.

The Chicago Board of Trade in North America was also affected.

For several consecutive days, soybean futures have experienced huge fluctuations.

(End of this chapter)