Chapter 279 A real man never looks back at the blackboard

Gao Zhendong, who had been writing furiously, closed his pen and paper, cleared his throat, and set the tone: "Overall, I think there is no problem with Mr. Xiang's accelerated test method."

Things like setting the tone cannot be done unless you are someone with sufficient status in the relevant matters, because no one will care. No matter how much you say, it can only be personal opinion. On the contrary, even if it is personal opinion, it can also be a tone.

Everyone was delighted. After all, despite all the concerns, they still hoped to promote the industrial production of urea as early as possible. Even if it was one rice crop earlier, that would be a lot of food.

So when Gao Zhendong said this powerful word, everyone felt relieved. Now that an authoritative person has spoken, there is hope.

Gao Zhendong first talked about the material itself: "As a researcher, I have a good idea about this material. Its performance is basically linear with the rate of corrosion. Within a controllable range, there is no situation of rapid performance degradation, so its overall life span is predictable."

With Gao Zhendong's words, everyone felt relieved.

“Whether it’s theory, metallographic structure, or measured data, it all proves this.”

This is very important. Some materials or systems have mutation points. That is, when the performance or a certain characteristic parameter is depleted to a certain extent, some characteristic parameters will drop precipitously or change dramatically.

This is more difficult to deal with because the mutation point is not static.

Gao Zhendong first made this point clear, giving everyone the first reassurance, and then he talked about his second point, which was more abstract because it did not exist at this time.

"In addition, I have also analyzed the reliability and availability of the entire system, and concluded that it is basically reliable, as long as there are no problems in the design, manufacturing, and construction."

This was a rather mysterious statement. Everyone was curious about how Gao Zhendong analyzed and came to this conclusion, including Director Hu from the Institute of Chemistry and President Xiang himself.

We have the data ourselves, but we can’t analyze it. How do you analyze it?
However, no one said this, for the same reason: he was a researcher of urea steel, and perhaps he had some technology and secrets that others didn't know about.

The technology Gao Zhendong used for analysis was indeed unknown to others, but it had nothing to do with urea steel. Instead, it was based on the perspective of cybernetics.

"Just now, while everyone was speaking, I used my work experience and commonly used analysis methods, and based on the data in the report to the general manager, I modeled and analyzed the corrosion life of the entire production line, and the conclusion was that it fully met the requirements."

Everyone who heard his words was in awe. Modeling and analysis!
Let alone that era, even in Gao Zhendong’s previous life, when it comes to mathematical modeling analysis, everyone’s first reaction is still: “Fuck, this is advanced.”

Within the scope of science and engineering, mathematics naturally stands at the top of the pyramid, and there is no way to change it.

However, some people still have some doubts. This person is none other than Mr. Xiang himself.

Because he knew the data in his report best, he understood very well that the amount of data in the report was far from enough to support a model and reach the point where it could be analyzed and predicted.

He also longed to speed up the pace of industrialized urea production, but if it came at the cost of Gao Zhendong's reputation, he felt it was inappropriate and that Director Gao would make too great a sacrifice.

So he said very tactfully: "Director Gao, because of the short time, we don't have much data, and there is not much regularity."

He did not say that Gao Zhendong's calculation was wrong, but instead attributed the cause to the tight time and poor data quality.

Gao Zhendong understood what he meant and said with a smile: "This method is quite special. It does not require a high amount of data. I call it the grey system theory."

As soon as these words came out, everyone was shocked.

Gao Zhendong's words were so shocking that they completely overturned existing theories and intuitions.

It’s not that other people are ignorant, but Gao Zhendong’s words are really too advanced.

Cybernetics, which is a little bit similar to grey system theory, can be traced back to fuzzy control theory. But when was fuzzy control theory born? It was in 1965.

In other words, it will take several years for a theory that is understandable and has a little bit of similarity to appear, not to mention that the grey system theory was actually only born in my country in the 20s.

Moreover, the object of fuzzy control theory is actually based on the white system, that is, the system with completely clear information. Correspondingly, the system with completely unknown information is the "black system". A related concept, "black box", is often mentioned in informatization.

As the name implies, the grey system is in between the two, with some information known and some unknown. Its main research object is the uncertainty system with "small sample and poor information". Gao Zhendong saw that everyone had an expression of "I want to see how you brag", so he had to introduce the grey system theory first.

Gao Zhendong spent more than ten minutes briefly introducing the grey system theory, and concluded: "The advantages of this method are that the sample size is small, the requirements for sample regularity are not high, the computational workload is small, the qualitative and quantitative analysis results are consistent, it can be used for short-term, medium-term and long-term forecasts, and the forecast accuracy is relatively high."

However, this theory is too advanced and extremely abstract to everyone today, and only very few people can understand it a little bit.

"Director Gao, do you mean that you can predict the results out of thin air?"

Gao Zhendong shook his head: "It's not out of thin air, it still needs data support, but the data requirements are relatively low. There are also certain requirements for the evaluation object and evaluation type, and its prediction methods are also limited."

After hearing his realistic words, everyone felt relieved. They were afraid that he would make something up, and then it would be like listening to a ghost story.

Gao Zhendong briefly introduced the five prediction methods of grey system theory, and then said: "As for Mr. Xiang's question, due to the stability of the corrosion degradation rate of the material, it happens to belong to the category of the simplest and most commonly used 'series prediction'. We can directly establish the GM (1, 1) prediction model for prediction."

Simple? Director Gao, are you redefining "simple"? Most people secretly complained about Gao Zhendong in their hearts.

In fact, grey system theory was widely used in the evaluation of military equipment in the future. This is why Gao Zhendong dared to use it boldly. As for why he knew it, it was because he checked a lot of papers at the request of his tutor.

Seeing that everyone was still confused, Gao Zhendong simply walked to the blackboard, took out a piece of chalk, used the data in the report to the general manager, listed the partial differential equation of the GM (1) model, and began to calculate on the spot.

While calculating, he said to President Xiang: "President Xiang, I believe that after the report of this meeting is finalized, there should be some follow-up monitoring data, right?"

When everyone heard this, they knew what he was going to do. Instead of saying a lot, it would be better to just take out the results and compare them. If they match, it means that this method has a certain foundation.

What we want is not 100%, but a certain amount of theory and evidence to support it, pushing the confidence level to a certain limit. If we are % sure about everything, then there is no need to do anything.

Gao Zhendong's method is also a good proof.

As for the possibility of collusion between Gao Zhendong and Mr. Xiang and his subordinates, no one had ever thought about it. It was not necessary because they were all well-known figures in their respective systems and it was not worth it.

Although time is tight, fortunately this method itself does not require much computation, the amount of data that Mr. Xiang and his team have is not large either, and Gao Zhendong's enhanced brain is very useful, so the calculation speed is not slow.

Everyone in the conference room watched Gao Zhendong writing quickly on the blackboard.

The data were listed on the blackboard one by one. Finally, Gao Zhendong fitted a curve on the blackboard based on the predicted data.

After finishing the last stroke of the last curve and adding the units to the coordinate system, Gao Zhendong threw away the chalk and turned to the leader of the Institute of Chemistry and said, "Leader, you can ask Mr. Xiang to compare their follow-up monitoring data with this curve. It should be not far off."

Then he returned to his seat without looking back, his movements smooth and confident.

A real man never looks back at the blackboard.

Gao Zhendong had this confidence because the matter of Mr. Xiang and his team was relatively simple, and the corrosion rate of the most core element was linear. With such good conditions, using the theory that has been verified and widely used in the future, Gao Zhendong really didn't believe that he couldn't come up with a good result.

Looking at Gao Zhendong's confident and carefree actions, everyone almost believed his words before they even verified them. The main reason was that this guy was just pretending to be too smooth.

Gao Zhendong learned this from his mentor in his previous life. The mentor said: "When you are doing the defense and presentation, once you are on stage, don't worry about the quality of the report or paper, because it can't be changed. You have to show your courage, the kind of courage that believes you are right even if you are wrong. Make your presentation openly and confidently, and don't be timid and hesitant. This way, others will have a better impression of you, and your chances of passing will be higher."

Thanks to his tutor, Gao Zhendong learned how to hold a pen when making a report before he learned how to improve the quality of his report in his previous life.

However, no matter how smooth he pretends, verification is still necessary.

President Xiang took out the follow-up monitoring data. Although these data were not included in the report due to time constraints, he still brought them as supplementary materials, thinking that they might be useful, and they were used right away.

(End of this chapter)